蒙特卡罗法在边坡失效概率计算中的应用  

Application of Monte-Carlo method in the calculation of failure probabilities of soil slopes

作　　者：李亮[1] 褚雪松[1] 于广明[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学土木工程学院,青岛266033

出　　处：《青岛理工大学学报》2012年第6期6-9,共4页Journal of Qingdao University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51008167;51274126);山东省高等学校科技计划项目(J10LE07);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20103721120001)

摘　　要：为了定量地掌握蒙特卡罗法中抽样次数对固定滑动面失效概率的影响程度,针对两个边坡,分别假定潜在滑动面为圆弧和非圆弧,土体材料的黏聚力和内摩擦角为服从正态分布的随机变量,选取不同的滑动面,进行了不同抽样次数下的计算分析.对比分析发现:对于失效概率为0的滑动面而言,抽样次数的大小对结果没有影响,而失效概率大于0的滑动面,随着抽样次数的增加,失效概率有减小的趋势.Two soil slopes are studied in order to quantitatively determine the influence of sample numbers in Monte-Carlo method on the failure probability for given slip surfaces. The cohesion and internal friction angle of soil layers are assumed to be random variables with normal distribution and different slip surfaces are constructed to calculate and analyze their failure probabilities of different sample numbers. The results show that for the slip surfaces with zero failure probability, whether the sample number is large or small has no influence on the failure probability, however, for the slip surfaces with positive failure probability, the failure probability tends to decrease along with the increase of sample number.

关 键 词：边坡稳定 可靠性 蒙特卡罗法 失效概率 

分 类 号：TU441[建筑科学—岩土工程]