日本政府债务可持续性的实证检验  

Empirical Testing on Japan's Government Debts Sustainability

作　　者：杨东亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2013年第1期10-18,共9页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：教育部社科重大项目"中国图们江区域合作开发战略研究"(12JZD00048);吉林省社科基金项目"吉林省区域经济格局演变与协调发展对策研究"(2012BS41)

摘　　要：日本政府债务可持续性受到中日学者的普遍关注。通过对1980～2011年日本国债负担率动态波动特征进行线性与非线性建模分析,发现日本国债负担率是非平稳的,得到日本政府债务是不可持续的结论以及我国应加强国债余额管理、外汇储备资产中国债发行国的政府债务可持续性研究、谨慎持有日本国债等研究启示。Abstract： Japan＇s government debts sustainability has been widely concerned by Sino- Japanese This paper makes an analysis through constructing the linear and nonlinear models of 1980 ～ 2011 about vola- tile characteristics of Japans government debt. The result shows that the Japan＇s national debt ratio is non - stationary and the conclusion is that Japan＇s government debts are not sustainable. In view of this, China should strengthen management of national debt balance, research on sustainability of foreign exchange reserve government debts issued by foreign countries and hold Japanese government bonds cautiously.

关 键 词：政府债务 国债负担率 平滑区制转移模型 实证检验 日本 

分 类 号：F133.13[经济管理—世界经济]