南海海浪业务化数值预报系统检验  

The verification of operational surface wave forecast system in the South China Sea

作　　者：周水华[1] 俞胜宾[1] 梁昌霞[1] 冯伟忠[1] 吴迪生[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广东广州510310

出　　处：《海洋预报》2012年第6期30-36,共7页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905015-03)

摘　　要：为检验南海海浪业务化数值预报系统的预报效果,利用2010年和2011年3—11月的观测资料,通过计算预报值和观测值的绝对误差、相对误差等统计参数和线性回归分析对南海海浪业务化数值预报系统进行检验。统计结果显示有效波高和平均周期的预报误差24 h<48 h<72 h,有效波高的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.5 m,平均周期的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.8 s;预报误差有明显的季节变化,10月和11月的预报误差显著小于其它各月;回归分析结果显示预报值与观测值存在中度高度线性相关关系,随着预报时效的增长相关度逐渐递减,预报值较观测值偏大。总体来说,该系统的预报误差在可接受的范围之内,满足业务化预报的要求,但与欧洲气象中心等发达国家的预报系统比较来看,该系统还存在较大差距。In order to estimate the Operational Surface Wave Forecast System of South China Sea Marine Fore- cast Center, SOA, by using the observational data during March --November in 2010 and 2011 in the South Chi- na Sea, the 24 h ,48 h, 72 h forecast result from the System is verified. The statistical results show that the predic- tion error of significant wave height and mean period is 24 h〈 48 h 〈 72h, and the average absolute error of signif- icant wave height forecasted in 24 h, 48 h, 72 h is less than 0.5m. The average absolute error in the average period of 24 h, 48 h, 72 h is less than 0.Ss. Meanwhile, the forecast error is significantly smaller in October and Novem- ber than that in other months. Regression analysis revealed that the forecast value and the observed value exists in highly linear correlation relationship, and with the prediction time growth, the correlation is gradually decreasing, and overall the forecast values are larger than observed value. In conclusion, the system which forecast error is ac- ceptable and meets the basic requirements of operational forecasting. However, there are still larger gaps between this system and other similar system, such as ECMWF.

关 键 词：MM5模式 WWⅢ模式 业务化数值预报系统 统计检验 检验参数 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]