能源消费与我国的经济增长——基于动态面板数据的实证分析  

Energy Consumption and China Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis based on the Dynamic Panel Data

作　　者：李鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第1期1-10,共10页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

摘　　要：本文采用修改后的戴蒙德模型从微观角度论证了能源消费随着收入的变动而同方向变动的结论,还发现各期能源消费之间存在相互依存性的关系。本文采用1995～2008年我国能源消费与经济增长的面板数据进行实证检验,结果表明,人均GDP变动1%,能源消费将同方向变动0.372222%;本期能源消费量变动1%,滞后期能源消费量将同方向变动0.320371%;经济增长的变动是能源消费变动的单向格兰杰原因。最后,本文根据研究结论提出了相关政策建议。China is the world＇s largest energy consumption country and is in the ranks of the second-largest economy. Energy is the important material of economic growth, and economic growth affects theenergy consumption. For the aim of scientific development about energy consumption and economy growth, it is necessary for us to do the research. Meanwhile, the research about energy consumption and economic growth is very important in the field of energy economics. From a new perspective, we do research bout it. This paper uses the modified Diamond model to study the relationship between energy consumption and income from a microscopic view. We find energy consumption changes as the change of income. It means the increase of income will lead to the increase of energy consumption. We also find every term energy consumption is interrelated. This term＇s energy consumption increase means the next energy consumption increase. We build a dynamic panel data model using the data of China about energy consumption and economic growth from 1995 to 2008. Then we use panel cointegration test to do the empirical research. We find there is a cointegration relationship between China energy consumption and economic growth. It shows that the per capital GDP changes 1% , energy consumption will change 0. 372222% with the same direction. This conclusion measures the specific quantity relationship between energy consumption and economic growth . And it shows that the current term energy consumption changes 1% , the lag term energy consumption will change 0. 320371% with the same direction. This conclusion measures specific quantity relationship about the terms energy consumption. It demonstrates the inertia characteristic of energy consumption. We can judge that the demand and supply contradiction of energy will intensify. At last Granger cause test shows the economic growth is the Granger cause of the energy consumption . It indicates the pulling effect of economic growth on energy consumption. And it explains the fact that the faster eco

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 动态面板数据 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]