国际收支失衡、经济波动与中国经济增长质量  

Imbalance of International Payments,Economic Fluctuations and Quality of China's Economic Growth

作　　者：李娟伟[1] 任保平[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《当代财经》2013年第1期23-31,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划课题"经济增长质量研究"(NCET-06-0890);陕西省重点学科西方经济学建设项目(2008SZ09)

摘　　要：在理论上探讨国际收支失衡与经济增长质量之间的相互关系,并运用3SLS和系统GMM方法,结合中国1982-2011年数据进行实证检验,回归结果表明中国国际收支失衡通过宏观经济稳定性影响经济增长质量的变化,国际收支失衡与经济增长质量负相关,其中经常项目收支失衡加剧了经济增长波动性,资本项目收支失衡是形成通货膨胀波动的重要因素,而且经济增长波动性也加剧了通货膨胀波动,因此调节国际收支失衡有利于促进宏观经济稳定和经济增长质量的提高。This paper discusses the relationships between the imbalance of international payments and the quality of economic growth in theory. By adopting the methods of 3SLS and System-GMM, it conducts an empirical test with China＇s annual data from 1982 to 2011. The regression results show that the imbalance of international payments influences the changing quality of economic growth through the stability, that the imbalance of payments is negatively related to the quali- ty of economic growth, among which the imbalance of current accounts has increased the volatility of economic growth, and that the imbalance of capital account is an important factor affecting the infla- tion volatility. Meanwhile, the economic growth volatility has also intensified the inflation volatility. Therefore, to adjust the imbalance of international payments is helpful in promoting macroeconomic stability and improving the quality of economic growth in China.

关 键 词：国际收支失衡 经济增长质量 经济波动 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]