平稳增长条件下中国各省市自治区的排放需求估算  

Estimation of Carbon Emission Requirements under Balance Growth in the Chinese Provinces

作　　者：王铮[1,2] 刘晓[3] 黄蕊[2] 刘慧雅[2] 翟石艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所北京100190 [2]华东师范大学上海200241 [3]湖南社会科学院长沙410003

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2013年第1期85-93,共9页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41071089);国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”)项目(2012CB955803)

摘　　要：文章运用碳排放经济动力学模型,分析了中国各省市自治区2009—2050年的能源碳排放需求量和减排可能性。结果表明:(1)我国大多数地区节能减排处在良性发展阶段,我国的哥本哈根承诺在发展低碳技术的前提下可以满足;(2)2020年以前,按照平稳增长要求,我国西部地区不可能达到减排40%—45%的平均减排目标,因此东部地区在未来的减排过程中需要承担更多责任;(3)以上海为代表的传统工业省区,以及经济正在起飞的中部省区,不宜大规模降低能源消费,因此需加大对这些地区的产业机构进步投资和能源结构优化,以降低碳排放;(4)经济欠发达的西部省区内蒙古、宁夏、青海、贵州及云南地区,节能减排压力大,需重点加快技术进步投资和改进生产模式,以保障实现最优的平稳增长。In this paper,a carbon dynamic model is used to analyze the requirement of energy carbon emissions of each province between 2009-2050 in China mainland.The following four major results are achieved. Firstly, the most regions of China mainland enter into a healthy development stage for the energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction. Secondly, the west of China mainland cannot achieve the target that carbon intensity reduces 40%-50% by 2020 comparing with 2005, therefore, the east of China mainland needs to take more responsibilities on energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in the future. Thirdly, industrial base represented by Shanghai and the central region of China mainland whose economies are taking off, should not cut too much energy consumption, because they need energy to support their economic development in the future. Thus increasing the technical transformation investment and reshaping the energy structure shuould be considered in these reions.Finally,the underdeveloped western provinces, such as Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Qinghai,ang Guizhou,suffer the high-pressure of the energy conservation and carbon emission reductions,and the key measure is changing industrial structure and production mode to ensure the optimized balance growth.

关 键 词：碳排放需求量 碳排放配额 能源强度 碳排放高峰 中国大陆 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]