取消出口退税对钢铁产品出口贸易的影响——以中韩贸易为例  

The Impact of Canceling Tax Rebates on Export of Steel Products: The Case of Sino-ROK Trade

作　　者：蒋荷新[1] 贾琼玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234 [2]上海对外贸易学院金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2013年第1期37-46,共10页International Business Research

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新项目"不同时期我国出口退税政策的目标及效果分析"(项目编号:12YS047)

摘　　要：本文采用HS分类的第72章钢铁产品六分位数据,用"倍差法"分别检验了出口退税政策变动对中国向世界和中国向韩国钢铁出口规模和结构的影响。实证结果表明,2010年7月中国政府取消出口退税政策显著地抑制了相关商品的出口增长:取消出口退税的四大类商品对世界的出口增长率比未取消退税的商品低了54%～98%,对韩国的出口增长率比未取消的其他商品低了30%～69%,为改善钢铁产品出口结构起到了重要的作用。由于一定时期内特定国家的贸易政策、汇率变动等影响需求的因素较为稳定,因此对韩国出口的实证研究结果更能客观地反映政策的实际效果。In this paper, we examine the impact on the amount and structure of China＇s steel export after cancelling tax rebate policy using a new method, ＂difference on difference＂ , and 6-bit export data （Chap.72 under HS classification）. The empirical study shows that the cancelling of tax rebate policy in July 2010 significantly suppressed the export of concerned products. Among the four categories of products, the export growth appears significantly different. The export growth of control group （eliminated tax rebates products） appears 54% to 98% lower than the compared group when we study China＇s world trade, while 30% to 69% lower when we take Sino- ROK trade as an example. Considering the stable influence on the demand of a certain country, such as trade policy, exchange rate and other factors, we think the empirical results of Sino-ROK can reflect the actual effects of tax rebate policy more objectively.

关 键 词：出口退税 钢铁产品 倍差法 经验研究 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]