蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子及其阈值  

Dominant climatic factors of Quercus mongolica geographical distribution and their thresholds

作　　者：殷晓洁[1] 周广胜[2,1] 隋兴华[1] 何奇瑾[2,3] 李荣平[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室,北京100093 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044 [4]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《生态学报》2013年第1期103-109,共7页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951303);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目共同资助

摘　　要：基于影响植物功能型分布的6个气候变量:年均降水量、气温年较差、最冷月温度、最暖月温度、大于5℃积温和湿润指数,结合蒙古栎地理分布资料,根据最大熵模型和各气候变量对蒙古栎地理分布的贡献,确定了影响蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子,即年均降水量、气温年较差、大于5℃积温和最暖月温度;利用模拟的蒙古栎地理分布概率与主导气候因子的关系给出了各主导气候因子的阈值,即年均降水量330—910 mm、气温年较差大于29℃、大于5℃有效积温为1200—3500℃·d、最暖月温度为17—26℃。Relationship between plant species distribution and climate is always one of the most important issues in the ecology study. Plant species distribution at regional scale is largely controlled by climate. The dominant climatic factors influencing plant species distribution can be obtained by the relationship between climate and plant species distribution. And the dominant climatic factors are very important for revealing the reason of the formation of plant species distribution, determining the appropriate distribution zone of plant species and evaluating the responses of plant species to climate change. Quercus mongolica is the dominant tree of deciduous broad-leaved forest, conifer-broadleaved mixed forest in the temperate region of China. In order to provide the scientific support for Q. mongolica forest management and countermeasures to cope with future climate change in China, we have to make sure what the dominant climatic factors of its distribution are. But studies in this area are so few that restrict the understanding of the response to climate change and Q. mongolica forest scientific operation. Thus, the potential distribution of Q. mongolica in China and its relationship with climatic factors were studied in this paper. Based on the geographical distribution data of Q. mongolica and six climatic variables potentially controlling plant functional types＇ distribution including annual precipitation （P）, annual range of monthly mean temperature （ DTY）, temperature of the coldest month （ T ）, temperature of the warmest month （ Tw ）,accumulated temperature of not less than 5 ~C （ GDD5 ） and moisture index （ MI）, and their contribution to geographical distribution of Q. mongolica from the maximum entropy （Maxent） model. The area under the ROC curve （AUC） was used to evaluate the accuracy of model prediction. The AUC value reached 0. 932, and the high value indicated predictive accuracy of model achieved the ＂Excellent＂ level. Combined with the contribution of each climat

关 键 词：蒙古栎 地理分布 主导气候因子 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：S792.186[农业科学—林木遗传育种]