基于四部门联立模型的油价波动与货币政策关系研究  

Research on the Relation between Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy Based on the Four Sector Simultaneous Model

作　　者：吴振信[1] 文韬[1] 王书平[1] 郑春梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《经济问题》2013年第1期44-48,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：北京市属市管高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(PHR20110869);北京市教委学科与研究生教育专项基金资助项目(PXM2010_014212_093659)

摘　　要：把利率和油价加入净出口函数,并将石油价格内生化,构建了四部门IS-LM-BP-O模型,以分析油价波动与货币政策的互动关系。以中、美、日三个石油进口和消费大国为研究对象进行了实证分析,结果表明,油价波动通过影响收入变化来引起货币供给变动,货币政策变动通过利率、汇率及收入的共同变动引起油价波动。利率、汇率和天然气产量均是影响油价的重要因素,而各国的收入水平对油价的影响较小。油价波动对美元和日元汇率的影响较大,而对人民币汇率的影响并不显著,也并未对中国的经济增长产生实质性影响。The interest rate and oil price were added in the net export function in this paper, in which oil price is endogenous. Then the relation between oil price volatility and monetary policy was studied for China, United States and Japan by building IS -LM -BP- O model. The empirical results showed that, oil price volatility leads to change of money supply via income, monetary policy affects oil price by the variation of interest rate, exchange rate and income. The interest rate, exchange rate and the yield of natural gas are the important factor to affect the oil price, but the affect of income is less. The oil price volatility has the more affects to the exchange rate of US dollar and Japanese Yen, but less to Renminbi, and has no obvious affect to the economic growth of China.

关 键 词：油价波动 货币政策 IS-LM-BP-O模型 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]