Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario  

作　　者：CHEN Huo-Po SUN Jian-Qi CHEN Xiao-Li 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Environmental Development Center of Ministry of Environmental Protection

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2013年第1期8-13,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955401);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41275078);supported by the "Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090306)

摘　　要：This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model(RegCM3) under the SRES(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.The standardized precipitation index(SPI),which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics(in terms of their intensity,duration,and spatial extent) in China,is used in this study.The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent.These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China.Considering China as a whole,the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced.In contrast,future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently.Additionally,the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model （RegCM3） under the SRES （Special Report on Emissions Scenarios） A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index （SPI）, which has well performance in monitoring the drought/ flood characteristics （in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent） in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be signifi- cantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.

关 键 词：standardized precipitation index drought/ flood PROJECTION 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S941.523[农业科学—水产养殖]