建筑信用监管的评价仿真与实证  

Appraisal Simulation and Demonstration of Constructional Credit Regulation

作　　者：孙劲峰[1] 晏路明[2] 刘永聪 陈晓凌 

机构地区：[1]厦门市建设与管理局,福建厦门361003 [2]福建师范大学,福建福州350007 [3]厦门鑫众城科技有限公司,福建厦门361012

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2012年第4期117-122,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为发展定量监管评价,基于行为档次记录的灰色模型建立评价新方法:获得记录样本正态分类的可靠搜索途径、生成总体合意分类标准的系统科学依据及个体行为评价的后续业绩调整。理论阐释与应用实证表明,方法的系统机理明晰,逻辑推理独特,技术路线新颖,应用条件较宽松。技术探讨指出正态合意约束或状态条件正常通常是仿真结果可靠的充要条件,以及档次记录结构正常则评价结果定然正态合意。仿真结果提示:监管评价应当首先克服监管不力或不当,确保不良记录结构良好、数量足够,才能保障评价结果可靠;指导机构合理操作并管控两种记录条数灰比以求保障档次记录结构正常,对监管评价具有必然涵义。To develop quantitative regulation appraisal,a new appraisal method is established based on grey model of behavior grade records,such as reliable searching route in obtaining Gaussian classification for record sample,system science basis for producing total desirable classification reference and subsequent achievement adjustment for individual behavior appraisal.Theoretical explanation and application demonstration show that the method has its characteristic on clarity of systematic mechanism,unique logic inference,original technology route and more lenient application conditions.Technical discussion points out that Gaussian desirable constraint or normal state condition usually is sufficient and necessary condition for simulation result reliability,and normal structure of behavior grade certainly leads to Gaussian desirability of appraisal result.Simulation results suggest that regulation appraisal should surmount regulation inadequate or inappropriate to ensure good structure and enough numbers in adverse records and to guarantee reliability for appraisal result.They have inevitable meanings for regulation appraisal in guiding rational institution operation and controlling grey ratio of two record numbers to ensure its normal structure.

关 键 词：建筑信用监管 不确定性评价 灰色分布 系统仿真 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]