基于LOGIT模型的交通费用政策影响分析方法——以贵阳为例  

Methodology on impact Analysis of Transport Cost Policy Based on Logit Model——a case study of Guiyang

作　　者：陈东光 戴彦欣[2] 黄伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]金华市城市规划设计院,金华321300 [2]中国城市规划设计研究院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通与运输》2012年第H12期46-49,共4页Traffic & Transportation

摘　　要：随着城市社会经济的快速发展,城市交通供需关系发生变化,大城市交通拥堵已经不可避免,交通费用政策在城市交通管理中的作用日益显著。利用交通需求模型预先对交通费用政策实施的效果进行分析,可以节约政策评估成本,避免政策偏差。首先研究了进行交通费用政策影响分析的基本思路和方法,并结合2009年建立的贵阳市综合交通需求模型进行实际应用分析与评价,最后总结交通费用政策影响分析及未来发展趋势。Companied with the rapid socioeconomic development, the supply and demand relationship of the urban transport has been changed, traffic congestion in big cities seems inevitable, and thus the impact of transport policies on development of urban transport becomes more and more revealing. With the use of transport demand model we can effectively simulate the execution impact of policies, save the cost of policy evaluation, and avoid policy failure. This article researches on the technical route and methodology of impact analysis of transportation cost policies, analyses and evaluates the practical utilization by integrating comprehensive transport demand modal of Guiyang in 2009, and summarizes the trend of development of impact analysis of transportation cost policies.

关 键 词：交通需求 LOGIT模型 方式划分 交通评价 交通费用政策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]