房价、CPI与货币政策传导机制的中美比较研究  

A Comparative study of China and the U.S.’s Housing prices,CPI and monetary policy:Impout Mechanism

作　　者：谭政勋[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州市暨南大学金融系

出　　处：《亚太经济》2013年第1期93-98,共6页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<我国房价稳定与银行稳定的货币政策研究>(12BJY161);教育部人文社会科学项目(09YJA790087);广东省优秀博士学位论文项目(sybzzxm201032);暨南大学远航计划项目(12JNYH001)资助

摘　　要：无论是货币还是利率的冲击,美国房价调整的幅度远大于中国;但是,内部比较来看,美国利率对房价的影响比货币供应量要大得多,中国则相反。中国房价的上升反过来会引起货币供应量的增加,货币供应的内生性比美国更强。美国房价的波动比中国更为剧烈,而CPI相反;两国房价均比CPI上涨更快、波动更大。在中国,房价和CPI之间的相互作用远大于美国,CPI是推动中国房价上涨的主要因素之一,房价上涨后也会引起新一轮的物价上涨。美国灵活的通货膨胀制的货币政策虽然有效维护了物价稳定,但没有抑制房价泡沫和促进金融稳定;即使未来利率调控的条件成熟,中国将来较长时期内,应该继续采用以控制信道和货币供应量为主、利率调整为辅的货币政策。The housing prices of USA response much larger than Chinain in face of both currency and inter- est rate shock. However, the prices of China response much greater to shock of currency than the one of interest rate, USA vice versa. The rise of housing prices in China, in turn, will cause the increase of the money supply, with stronger endogenity of money supply than the U. S. Fluctuations of housing prices in USA is more intense than in China, while the CPI is just the opposite. The interaction between house prices and CPI in China is much larger than the U. S. , and CPI is one of the main factors driving housing prices, which can also leads to a new rising of CPI. Flexible inflation monctary policy system maintains effectively the price stability, but it does not inhibit the housing bubble and promote the financial stability. Even if the conditions arc mature for interest ratc regulation in the future, China should continue to use the current monetary policy.

关 键 词：房价 货币政策 中美比较 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]