基于层次分析法的杭州市水资源安全现状评价及趋势  

Water Resources Safety Status Evaluation and Trends Prediction in Hangzhou City Based on AHP Method

作　　者：万坤扬[1] 胡其昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江水利水电专科学校经济与管理工程系,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第1期21-25,222,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(11YJC790170)

摘　　要：为确保城市水资源安全,在专家判断基础上,基于层次分析法,从水资源工程安全、经济安全、生活安全、环境安全、可持续发展安全5个方面构建了包含16个评价指标的城市水资源安全的评价指标框架体系。根据系统安全度将城市水资源安全划分为5个等级,利用构建的水资源安全评价指标体系对杭州市2000～2010年水资源安全现状进行了实证分析,并在现状评价的基础上,采用组合预测法构建了各评价指标预测模型对杭州市2011～2015年进行了预测性评价。结果表明,评价结果基本符合实际情况,"十一五"期间杭州市水资源安全表现为良好状态,尚未达到完全适应,制约杭州市未来水资源安全的主要因素在于杭州市水资源工程安全和水资源可持续发展安全两方面,应引起相关部门的高度重视。To ensure the safety of urban water resources, on the basis of expert judgment, based on the method of an- alytic hierarchy process （AHP）, urban water resources security （WRS） assessment system is established from the aspects of engineering security, economic security, livelihood security, environmental security and sustainable development secur ity of water resources, which contains 16 evaluation indexes. According to the system security degree, urban WRS is di vided into five grades. Hangzhou City WRS from 2000 to 2010 is assessed through the WRS assessment system. On this basis, combination prediction method is applied to construct the WRS evaluation index prediction model and development trend of Hangzhou City WRS from 2011 to 2015 is forecasted. It proves that the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation; Hangzhou City WRS in the Eleventh Five Year period is good, not yet reaches the perfect fit; main fac- tors restricting Hangzhou city WRS in the future lie in water resource engineering security and water resource sustainable development security; it must be highly recognized by the relevant authorities.

关 键 词：层次分析法 水资源安全评价 组合预测法 杭州市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]