基于风险分析和模糊专家系统的超高压基建工程不可预见费估算  

Estimation of Contingency Cost of EHV Infrastructure Project Based on Risk Analysis and Fuzzy Expert System

作　　者：马博[1] 倪红芳[2] 朱晓丽[2] 曾鸣[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国南方电网超高压输电公司广州局,广东广州510420 [2]华北电力大学能源与电力经济研究咨询中心,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第1期184-187,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对工程项目投资中采用现有的方法估算不可预见费存在的不足,以超高压基建工程为例,构建了不可预见费估算理论模型,分析了超高压基建工程实施过程中存在的风险,并对各风险进行分类筛选,进而确定风险等级,再利用模糊专家系统估算工程的不可预见费。算例应用结果表明,基于风险分析和模糊专家系统来估算超高压基建工程不可预见费用的方法可行、有效,且估算误差均在10%以内。Aiming at the deficiency of contingency cost estimation of proiect investment with current method, contin gency cost estimation model is established by taking EHV infrastructure project for an example. The risks that may exist in the implementation process of EHV infrastructure projects are analyzed and classified. And then, fuzzy expert system is used to estimate the contingency cost of EHV infrastructure project. Example results show that the proposed model is feasible and effective for eslimating contingency cost of EHV infrastructure project and the estimation error is within 10%.

关 键 词：风险分析 模糊专家系统 超高压基建工程 不可预见费 

分 类 号：TM723[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F424.6[经济管理—产业经济]