热钱、房地产价格波动与金融体系稳定——基于SVAR模型的实证分析  

Hot Money,the Fluctuation of Real Estate Price and Financial Stability——Based on the SVAR Model

作　　者：何淑兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学经贸学院,广东广州510090

出　　处：《经济与管理》2013年第1期25-31,共7页Economy and Management

基　　金：广东工业大学青年基金112028(405115057)

摘　　要：热钱、房地产价格波动、银行信贷三者之间存在着一种自我强化的互馈机制,呈顺周期运行特征,会导致金融体系的不稳定,进而影响宏观经济。通过使用SVAR模型对我国房地产市场进行实证分析,结果发现:热钱推高了房价并且加剧了房价的波动,至少可以直接解释25%左右的房价波动,若进一步考虑货币供应量导致银行信贷扩张这一间接机制,其效果将更为可观。因此,要提高房地产调控政策的有效性、稳定金融市场,就必须加强对短期资本流动的监控,合理引导我国房地产市场的发展以及加速发展我国房地产金融体系,以达到控制和分散金融风险的目的。There aret he existence of a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism among the hot money, prices of real estate and bank credit, which show a cyclical operation characteristics, will lead to the stability of financial system and affect the macro economy. By using the empirical analysis of SVAR model in China＇s real estate market, it was found that hot money has pushed up prices and increased prices fluctuations, at least directly explains about 25% of the price fluctuations, we consider the money supply causes the bank credit expansion to this indirect mechanisms, the effect will be even more impressive. Therefore, to improve the effectiveness of the policy of estate adjusting control, stabilize the financial market, we must strengthen the short-term capital flow control, reasonable guiding the development of our real estate market and speed up the development of China＇s real estate financial system, in order to achieve control and decentralized financial risk.

关 键 词：热钱 房地产价格波动 金融稳定 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]