对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾  

A Review on Evaluation Methods of Climate Modeling

作　　者：赵宗慈[1,2] 罗勇[1,2] 黄建斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京100084 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2013年第1期1-8,共8页Climate Change Research

基　　金：科技部973项目(2010CB950501-03);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41175066)

摘　　要：对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾表明,近些年该领域有明显的进展,包括从单个变量到地球系统五个圈层多变量、多过程、多现象的定量评估,从气候态的评估到气候变化(如趋势性、周期性、年代际变率)、极值、异常和现象的定量评估,从定性评价到定量计算模式模拟的可靠性和不确定性,在多模式的利用中开始考虑模式之间的独立性和相似性,以及对气候预测和预估的效果进行定量评估和不确定性的贡献分析。There are obvious progress in the evaluation methods of the recent Earth system models （ESMs）, from single variable to the multi-variable, multiple process, much phenomenon quantitative assessments in five layers （spheres） of the Earth, from the climatic mean assessment to climate change （such as trend, periodic, interdecadal variability）, extreme value, abnormal characters and phenomenon quantitative assessments, from a qualitative evaluation to quantitative calculation of reliability and uncertainty for model simulation. Researchers began to consider patterns between independence and similarity in multi-model use, as well as the quantitative evaluation of climate prediction and projection effect and the quantitative uncertainty contribution analysis.

关 键 词：地球系统模式(ESMs) 评估方法 定量评估 回顾 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]