养老金“双轨制”对城镇居民生命周期消费差距的影响  

“Double-track” Pension Scheme and Its Impact on Life-cycle Consumption Gap of Urban Household

作　　者：徐舒[1] 赵绍阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学经济学院 [2]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2013年第1期83-98,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71103145);西南财经大学"211工程"青年教师成长项目(211QN2011002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(JBK120507)的研究资助

摘　　要：本文建立了一个异质性经济人的生命周期模型以刻画经济个体的动态消费决策,进而采用似然矩方法(Method of Simulated Moment)估计出模型的结构参数。在此基础上,通过反事实模拟考察当前养老金"双轨制"对公务员和城镇企业职工生命周期消费差距的影响。研究结果表明,在考虑了公务员与企业职工不同的收入增速、收入风险以及异质性偏好后,养老金"双轨制"引起的替代率差异能解释公务员与企业职工生命周期中24.3%的消费差距。享有与公务员相同的养老金替代率水平将促使企业职工生命周期的平均消费增加4.84%,并且对于财富水平越低的企业职工,该促进效应越明显。We build up a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model to characterize the dynamic consumption choice of economic agents. Estimation is then performed by the method of simulated moment to obtain the model parameters. Counterfactual simulation based on estimated parameters indicates that different pension replacement rate faced by public servants and enterprise employees, which is caused by the ＂double-track＂ pension scheme, can account for 24.3% of the life-cycle consumption gap between public servants and enterprise employees. Had the same pension replacement rate as public servants, the life cycle consumption of enterprise employees would raise by 4.84%. Moreover, the less wealth an enterprise employee possesses, the larger stimulating effect of raising replacement rate on consumption he has.

关 键 词：养老金“双轨制” 生命周期模型 结构估计 

分 类 号：F842.612[经济管理—保险] F126.1