消费习惯与中国经常项目差额波动研究  

A Study on the Consumption Habit and Fluctuation of China's Current Account Balance

作　　者：周亚军[1] 陈建华[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081

出　　处：《经济数学》2012年第4期99-104,共6页Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目资助(10YJA790240);新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院基金项目(050112C05);新疆财经大学博士启动基金项目

摘　　要：通过对经常项目的跨时最优现值模型进行扩展,将居民的消费习惯变量包含进了扩展模型并进行了实证检验.结果表明,模型的功效得到了显著改善,居民的消费习惯在中国经常项目的差额波动路径中起了重要作用.由于消费习惯的形成,居民更加关心消费的变化而不是消费水平,其跨时消费决策的结果则是储蓄大于投资.因此,缩小居民的收入差距、降低对未来的支出预期,逐步转变居民的消费习惯是调整中国经常项目差额波动的有效途径.The intertemporal-optimized present-value model was extended to contain the consumption habit variable, and empirical tests were conducted. The test results show that the efficacy of the model has been significantly improved, and the consumption habits of the residents play an important role in the fluctuation path of Chings current account balance. Due to the consumption habit formation, the residents are more concerned about the changes in consumption rather than consumption lev- el, and the result of the residents~ decision on intertemporal consumption leads to saving more than investment. Therefore, to narrow the income gap of the residents, to reduce future expenditure expectation, and to gradually change people＇s consumption habits are effective ways to adjust Chinffs current account balance.

关 键 词：跨时最优现值模型 经常项目 差额波动 消费习惯 

分 类 号：O431[机械工程—光学工程]