国际粮食市场演变趋势及其对中国粮食进出口政策选择的启示  

The Evolutionary Trend of World Grain Market and its Policy Implications for China's Grain Import and Export Trade

作　　者：袁平[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心,四川成都610074

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期46-55,共10页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(11XJC790014);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(08JZD0017)

摘　　要：中国的粮食安全问题尤其是中国的粮食进出口贸易,一直是国际社会强烈关注的焦点之一。通过对国际粮食市场与中国粮食进出口贸易的演变过程、影响因素和相互关系等方面的深入分析,得出了以下主要结论:国际粮食市场面临的不确定性增加,但全球粮食产量与贸易供给量基本稳定和充足;国际粮食市场是中国有效调剂国内粮食余缺的重要途径,但目前利用程度严重偏低;中国粮食进出口贸易行为的发生,在时点选择方面存在较明显的"逆向"调剂问题;在国际粮源的可获得性和国际购粮支付方面,中国利用国际粮食市场的空间和能力很大。针对中国应有效利用国际粮食市场以保障粮食安全,本文还提出了相应的一系列政策建议。China＇ s food security, especially its grain import and export, has been a focus in the world grain mar- ket for a long time. Based on an in-depth analysis of the evolving process of the world grain market and China＇ s grain import and export trade, respectively, and also of their influencing factors and the relations, the author arrived at some conclusions as follows： increasing uncertainties but the stable supply of grain in the world grain market, the world grain market being one important way for China to guarantee its food security but not being taken good advantage of for the time being, there being something wrong with China＇ s policy of grain import and export, and China having obvious ability of taking good advantage of the world grain market for its food security. Then, the author discussed some corresponding suggestions in order to promote China＇ s taking best advantage of the world grain market to guarantee better its food security.

关 键 词：国际粮食市场 粮食安全 粮食贸易 影响因素 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]