未来气候变化对我国粮食安全的影响  

The Impact of Future Climate Change on China's Food Security

作　　者：周曙东[1] 周文魁[1] 林光华[1] 乔辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期56-65,共10页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(08&zd015);国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD046);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(KYT201005)

摘　　要：气候变化对中国农业生产可能带来正面影响和负面影响,探讨应对气候变化的适应性对策,分析农业气象灾害对粮食安全的影响,并对气候变化影响及适应性措施的不同情景方案对粮食安全影响进行情景模拟分析。研究结果显示未来气温上升导致的粮食单产下降将对中国今后的粮食生产带来一定程度的不利影响,除东北地区外,其他五个地区的粮食产量都将下降,从而对中国未来的粮食安全形势构成重大威胁。部分省区发生的季节性干旱对处于干旱和半干旱区的华北和西北地区的区域性粮食安全造成一定的影响。应对气候变化的适应性措施可以达到趋利避害的目的。未来在长江流域和华南地区大力推广双季稻,可以充分利用气温上升带来积温增加的好处,使这些地区的水稻产量明显增加;引种和技术进步对全国粮食产量提高有着显著的作用;而多种适应性措施多管齐下对全国粮食产量的提高程度更为明显。This paper analyzes the positive and negative impacts of future climate change on agricultural produc- tion in China, explores adaptive countermeasures in response to climate change, identifies the impacts of agricul- tural meteorological disasters on food security, and makes a simulation analysis on the impacts on food security with different scenarios of climate change and adaptive measurements. The simulation results shows that the de- cline in grain yields owing to temperature rise would bring some unfavorable impacts on grain production in Chi- na, and, except in Northeast China, grain production will decline in other five regions in China, which poses a major threat to China＇ s food security in future. Seasonal drought in some provinces would affect regional food se- curity in the arid and semi-arid regions of northern and northwestern China. Adaptive countermeasures in re- sponse to climate change help achieve the purpose of avoiding disadvantages. The promotion of double cropping system of rice in the Yangtze River Basin and the rest of South China could take the advantage of the temperature rise, and the accumulated temperature rise in these regions could significantly increase rice yield. The introduc- tion of new varieties and technological improvement play an important role in improving the national grain produc- tion. The application of combined countermeasures would make more significant achievements for the increase in the grain production in China.

关 键 词：气候变化 粮食安全 技术进步 情景分析 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]