基于SEM的基础设施PPP项目残值风险评估  

SEM-based Risk Assessment on Residual Value Risk in PPP Project

作　　者：袁竞峰[1] 季闯[1] 熊伟[2] 李启明[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学土木工程学院建设与房地产系,南京210096 [2]香港科技大学土木及环境工程学系

出　　处：《技术经济》2013年第1期75-84,共10页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基础设施PPP项目残值风险动态预测与监控方法研究"(71001027);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目"中国城市网络型公用事业公私合作(PPP)项目的绩效评估研究"(2011SJD630003)

摘　　要：研究了PPP项目在移交阶段凸显的残值风险,通过解析PPP项目残值风险的内涵,分析了其影响因素。利用问卷调查资料识别影响PPP项目残值风险的关键因素,并运用结构方程模型解构各关键因素之间的关系,据此构建了残值风险评估模型。以北京国家体育馆PPP项目为案例,验证了该模型的可行性和适用性。结果表明,该模型具有计算程序简单、能清晰表达项目残值风险状态的优点。This paper studies residual value risk（RVR） in the stage of project being transferred. Through exploring the connotation of RVR, it identifies the influencing factors of RVR. Using the data from a national questionnaire survey,it identifies the critical risk factors（CRFs） of RVR in PPP project, and analyzes the relationships among these critical factors by using structural equation modeling（SEM）, and constructs the risk assessment model to evaluate the degree of RVR at any time. And it verifies the feasibility and applicability of the proposed model through an example. The results indicate that this model could simply and clearly reflect the status of project＇s RVR,which could be utilized to strengthen the management of PPP project for public sectors.

关 键 词：PPP模式 残值风险 结构方程模型 风险评估 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济] F224