我国人均粮食占有量时空变化特征及驱动力研究  

Study on temporal-spatial characteristics of per capita grain possession and its driving forces in China

作　　者：张琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2012年第24期205-209,213,共6页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40930103;40771186);江苏省自然科学基金(BK2001040)

摘　　要：粮食安全问题一直被我国各界所关注,人均粮食占有量是粮食安全度的重要体现。为了明确我国粮食安全状况,根据1997—2010年我国人均粮食占有量及引起其变化的各类驱动力数据,利用TFPW-MK趋势检验法和基于PLS的STIRPAT模型,定量研究了近14年人均粮食占有量的时空变化特征以及各驱动力的影响。结果表明:从时间尺度看,1997—2003年人均粮食占有量波动减少,2003—2010年人均粮食占有量逐年增长,整体呈增加趋势;从空间尺度看,61%的地区近14年人均粮食占有量呈上升趋势,其中内蒙古趋势斜率最大,河北趋势斜率最小。39%的地区近14年人均粮食占有量呈下降趋势,其中上海趋势斜率绝对值最大,四川趋势斜率绝对值最小;人均粮食占有量变化的负驱动力中一产就业人员影响最大,正驱动力中粮食作物播种面积影响最大。我国粮食安全整体呈良性发展态势。Food security appeals our attentions all the time, per capita occupancy of grain reflects the degree of food security. In order to evaluate the status of Chinese food security, accorded to the per capita occupancy of grain and its driving forces in China from 1997--2010, based on TFPW-MK test method and STIRPAT model, this paper studied temporal-spatial characteristics of per capita grain possession and its driving forces in the recent 14 years. Results showed that per capita grain possession decreased from 1997 to 2003 and increased from 2003 to 2010. The provinces rate which per capita grain possession increased in the recent 14 years was 61%, among them Neimenggu＇s trend is the biggest and Hebei＇s trend is the smallest. While the provinces rate which per capita grain possession decreased in the recent 14 years was 39%, and Shanghai＇s absolute trend is the biggest and Sichuan＇s absolute trend is the smallest. The negative driving force of primary industry employed persons make the most difference to per capita grain possession, while grain crop area make the most difference to per capita grain possession in positive driving forces. The food security is well-developing in China.

关 键 词：人均粮食占有量 时空变化 驱动力 TFPW—MK检验法 STIRPAT模型 PLS 中国 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]