非连续运行设备贮存-工作联合退化模型及其应用  

Storage-Work Joint Degradation Model for Discontinuous-Working Devices and Its Application

作　　者：程龙[1] 冯静[1] 孙权[1] 周经伦[1] 蔡永超[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《电子学报》2012年第12期2549-2552,共4页Acta Electronica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.60804054)

摘　　要：对某些非连续运行的设备,贮存状态和工作状态会交替出现,工程上可通过观测其关键性能参数变化监控设备健康状态,并以此为依据对其寿命和可靠性进行预测分析.针对该类设备,本文综合分析其贮存和工作条件下性能退化规律,建立设备贮存-工作联合退化模型,利用性能退化数据的拐点特性对该联合退化模型的参数进行估计,在此基础上,实现设备的可靠性分析和寿命预测.最后以金属化膜电容器为例建立了联合退化模型,分析该电容器的可靠性并预测寿命.For the discontinuous-working devices, the storage and work states may appear alternately. The healthy state of the device can be monitored by observing the key performance parameters in engineering, which can be also taken as a basis to pre- dict and analyze the life and reliability of the device.For this kind of device, this paper comprehensively analyzes the performance degradation rules in storage and work conditions, and establishes the storage-work joint model of the device, then estimates parame- ters of the joint degradation model by analyzing change point characteristic of the perfommnce degradation data. On this basis, the reliability analysis and life prediction may be achieved, In the end, the joint degradation model of the metalized fdm capacitor will be established, and the reliability and life of the capacitor will also be analyzed and predicted.

关 键 词：非连续运行设备 联合退化模型 随机拐点 金属化膜电容器 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]