湖南省化肥投入与粮食产出变化对环境成本的影响分析  

The effect of fertilizer usage on grain output and environmental cost:an empirical study in Hunan province

作　　者：赵志坚[1] 胡小娟[2] 彭翠婷[2] 姚均荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2012年第12期2007-2012,共6页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(09YJA790062);湖南大学"中央高校专项资金"项目成果之一

摘　　要：文章利用1983—2010年的数据,运用计量模型对湖南省粮食产量与化肥投入之间的关系进行实证检验,发现它们之间存在较强的正相关性;运用比较法计算化肥施用量与粮食增量之间的关系,发现化肥投入以年均3.12%的速度增长,是粮食增速的12倍;运用投入产出方法计算出单位面积粮食产出的化肥投入边际效益以年均3.58%的速度降低。同时,文章运用计量模型及借助能值分析理论首次测算湖南省粮食生产使用化肥投入的环境成本,并把它折算成货币价值,改变了长期以来人们习惯于计算粮食的直接生产成本而忽略粮食生产过程中的资源环境损失成本,同时弥补了环境成本货币价值计算的缺失。事实上,这一隐性成本的长期积累已通过环境污染逐渐显现出来,并反作用于湖南省的粮食生产。计算结果显示:粮食化肥施用的环境成本以年均7.13%的速度增长;化肥使用量每增加一个百分点,粮食产量增加0.139个百分点,化肥施用的环境成本增加1.57个百分点。最后,针对湖南粮食增产化肥投入的环境污染问题提出相应的对策建议:必须用法律手段确保耕地的数量和质量;建立国家农田污染防治的相关法律法规制度;倡导农业自身生态环境保护;发展替代性环保农业投入品;政府应在实施粮食财政补贴政策的同时实施环保农业财政补贴政策;把提高化肥利用率作为化肥施用研究的重点等。By analyzing a dataset from year 1983 to year 2010, we detected a fairly strong positive relationship between fertilizer use and output. However, the growth rate of fertilizer use is 3.12 percent annually, twelve times that of grain output. Input-output analysis reveals that the marginal productivity of fertilizer, in terms of grain output per unit of land, is declining by 3.58 percent annually during the period of study. Another contribution of this article is our estimate of the environmental cost of fertilizer used in grain production. The estimate is based on econometric models and emergy analysis, and is expressed in monetary values. Since most researchers focus on the production cost of grains but overlook the environmental cost, this article is a valuable supplement of the literature. Our analysis indicates that the implicit cost in terms of pollution has gradually manifested itself in Hunan, and that it begins to impede grain production. The estimated growth rate of environmental cost is 7.13 percent annually. Our estimates also indicate that although a one percent increase in fertilizer use increases the grain output by 0.139 percent, it also results in a 1.57 percent increase in the environmental cost. Finally, we propose a few policy measures addressing the pollution induced by fertilizer use. We recommend law enactments that enforce arable land conservation, both in quantity and quality. We also recommend that the government set up mandatory regulations or laws on agricultural pollutant control. The government should also launch environment protection initiatives and introduce to farmers environmentally friendly substitutes of chemical fertilizers. Other policies include subsidies on grain production and environmental protection, and active research on more efficient use of fertilizers.

关 键 词：粮食产出 化肥投入 环境成本 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]