基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的中国经济波动分析  

China's Economic Fluctuation:An Analysis Based on the New Keynesian DSGE Model

作　　者：郭立甫[1,2] 姚坚[1] 高铁梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,116025 [2]河北经贸大学,050061

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2013年第1期3-12,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010);国家自然科学基金项目(71173029);教育部社科规划基金项目(10YJA790021);霍英东教育基金会项目(131086);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-1009)

摘　　要：本文基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,通过贝叶斯方法进行估计,识别和分析了偏好冲击、技术冲击、价格加成冲击和利率冲击对产出和通货膨胀的影响,结果表明:技术冲击对产出波动产生了正向影响而且存在技术扩散机制的情况下产出水平可以到达新的稳态水平;而对通货膨胀波动产生负向影响,而且影响较为明显。货币政策冲击(利率冲击)对产出波动和通货膨胀波动均产生负向影响,而且影响较大。价格加成冲击对产出波动产生正向影响,对通货膨胀波动产生负向影响。因此,抑制通货膨胀稳定经济增长需要各项制度和措施的配合。This paper identifies and analyzes the impacts of the shocks of preference, technology, cost-push and interest-rate on fluctuations of output and inflation, basing on the Bayesian estimated New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model. Results show that, technology shock has significant impact on output fluctuation in the positive direction and can make the output level up to a new steady-state level because of technology diffusion and has significant impact on inflation fluctuation in the negative direction. Interest-rate shock has significant impacts on output and inflation fluctuations in the same negative direction. Cost-push shock has significant impacts on output fluctuation in the positive direction and inflation fluctuation in the economy need the cooperation of various negative direction. Thus, curbing？ inflation and stabilizing the system and measures.

关 键 词：经济波动 动态随机一般均衡模型 货币政策 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]