电子商务模仿创新的分角色两阶段Bass模型及应用  

A Study on Two-Stage Bass Model of E-Business Imitate Innovation and its Application

作　　者：王砚羽[1] 谢伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济与管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《科学学与科学技术管理》2013年第2期36-41,共6页Science of Science and Management of S.& T.

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073092;70890082;71121001);教育部博士学科点科研基金专项(20100002110061)

摘　　要：我国电子商务商业模式大多以模仿国外创新为主。针对电子商务模仿创新扩散规模问题,探讨了技术创新扩散的经典Bass模型在服务创新领域的改进和应用。首先梳理了创新扩散模型的已有研究成果,明确本研究的理论分支。之后在经典Bass模型基础上,对创新者和追随者进行分角色讨论,立足模仿者视角,考虑模仿者进入市场的时滞问题和模仿者进入市场后与创新者的竞争态势,建立电子商务平台规模分析与预测的分角色两阶段Bass模型。有效扩充宏观创新扩散模型的使用边界,试图为我国电子商务企业模仿创新提供决策支持工具。China＇s e-business model mostly imitates foreign models. Focus on the problem of diffusion scale, study the improvement and application of classical Bass model in the field of service innovation. First summary the existing research on innovation diffusion models. Then based on the classical Bass model discus innovators and followers respectly. After that on imitators perspective, consider the time delay and competition situation after imitators entering the market, and establish e-business sub-role two-stage Bass model. Expand the boundary of the macro-innovation diffusion models effectivly, and provide decision support tools for e-business in China to imitate the innovation. The examples show that the established model has good prediction accuracy and practical signifi- cance

关 键 词：电子商务 商业模式 BASS模型 两阶段 

分 类 号：F713.360[经济管理—产业经济] F406.3