1961年以来海河流域干旱时空变化特征分析  

Spatial and temporal changes in drought since 1961 in Haihe River basin

作　　者：严登华[1,2] 袁喆[1,2,3] 杨志勇[1,2] 王勇[4] 于赢东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [4]中华人民共和国水利部规划计划司,北京100053

出　　处：《水科学进展》2013年第1期34-41,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2010CB951102);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAC19B03)~~

摘　　要：以干旱易发区海河流域为例,利用流域内及其周边地区58个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象观测数据,结合累积相对湿润度指数和模糊集对评价法,考虑了干旱的累积效应以及评价标准等级边界的模糊性和评价因子的时程分配,分析了海河流域干旱时空变化特征。结果表明:①近50年来流域主要干旱类型为中旱和重旱,平均面积分别约为7.30万km2和7.78万km2,重旱面积呈现出显著的增加趋势;②近25年来,重旱易发区范围表现出扩张的态势,1985—2010年重旱易发区面积达到14.9万km2,为1961—1985年的1.6倍。Drought is considered one of the weather disasters that restrict the socioeconomic development in China. The Haihe River basin is a typical region suffering from droughts. Daily meteorological observations from 58 stations are selected for the current drought study. The data covers the period 1961--2010 and the stations are located in the basin and its surrounding areas. The accumulated relative moisture index and FSPAAM （ Fuzzy and set pair analysis e- valuation method） are used in the study, as they can take into account the accumulated effect of drought as well as the fuzziness boundary conditions and the distribution of objects being evaluated. The characteristics of spatial and tempo- ral drought variations in the Haihe River basin are analyzed. Results show that （1） the Haihe River basin is dominated by moderate drought and severe drought, respectively affecting 73 000 km and 77 800 kin. The severe drought-affected area increases significantly over the past 50 years; （2） during the period 1986--2010, there is a tendency for the ex- pansion of severe drought-prone areas. The latter has gone up to 149 000 km2 , which is 1.6 times higher than that of 1961--1985.

关 键 词：干旱 累积效应 模糊集对 时空变化 海河流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]