面向可持续发展的水资源优化配置研究  

Research on the Sustainable Development of the Optimal Allocation of Water Resources

作　　者：李丽琴[1] 谢新民[1] 韩剑桥[2] 吕自鑫[3] 杜明月[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100038 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [3]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2013年第1期15-18,22,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金："十一五"国家重点支撑计划项目(2007BAB28B04);水利部公益性行业专项经费项目(201101034)

摘　　要：结合可持续发展与水资源优化配置的关系,从水资源承载能力、经济社会和生态环境指标体系三方面建立了基于可持续发展的水资源优化配置的评价体系。以工程模糊集理论中的隶属度计算方法为基础,进行评价因子可持续度的计算,衡量区域可持续发展能力。以鄯善县为例,采用区域水资源供需平衡的模拟计算结果,作为指标评价体系的实际指标值,进行鄯善县水资源配置可持续度的评判。结果表明:鄯善县的可持续度随着规划水平年(2015、2020、2030年)的延续而逐渐增大。2030年鄯善县可持续度达到0.74,处于中上级可持续发展水平。最后给出了鄯善县多目标协同可持续发展的策略。According to the relationship between the sustainable development and the optimal allocation of water resources, the evaluation system based on the sustainable development of optimal allocation of water resources is established in respect of the index system water resources carrying capacity, and the social economic and ecological environment. Then, based on the method of the membership degree calculation of engineering fuzzy set theory, sustainable degree and sustainable development ability are measured. Shanshan County is taken as an example to evaluate the sustainable degree with actual index value from the regional water resources supply and demand balance of simulation results. It is found that the sustainable degree of Shanshan County increases gradually with the increase in planning level years （2015, 2020, and 2030）. In 2030 the sustainable degree will reach 0.74, which is in the higher level of sustainable development. The countermeasures of sustainable development based on multi-ojective are suggested.

关 键 词：可持续发展 水资源优化配置 指标体系 可持续度 鄯善县 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]