BCC_CSM气候模式对中国区域500 hPa气候要素模拟能力的检验  

Evaluation of climate at 500 hPa in China as simulated by BCC_CSM

作　　者：石彦军[1] 任余龙[1,2] 张宇[1] 周甘霖[1] 尚可政[1] 王式功[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,兰州730020

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期54-62,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项(2007BAC29B03;2009BAC53B02)

摘　　要：以NCEP/NCAR的1948—2005年逐月再分析资料为实况场,利用标准化均方根误差、相关系数等方法对BCC_CSM模式模拟中国区域500 hPa不同季节的位势高度场、温度场、相对湿度场、风场等气象要素的能力进行检验.结果表明:1)位势高度场的标准化均方误差在中国区域的不同季节均小于1,对应相关系数均通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;2)温度场的标准化均方误差在中国区域不同季节均小于1,对应相关系数除了夏季的中国南方外均通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;3)相对湿度、经向风与纬向风在中国区域夏、秋、冬三个季节的标准化均方根误差都比较小,实况纬向风场与模拟纬向风场全年相关性都比较好,相关系数在中国绝大部分地区能通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;4)模式模拟出了中国不同地区各个气象要素的年内变化,除中国西南地区的经向风外,各气象要素实况场与模拟场的相关系数均通过水平α=0.05的显著性检验.Taking the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 as the observation object, the abihties of the BCC_CSM model to simulate geopotential height field,temperature field,relative humility field and wind field in different seasons of China were tested by using the standardized RMSE and correlation coefficient methods.The results show that：1） The standardized RMSEs of height fields were less than 1 in different seasons in China and the corresponding correlation coefficients passed the significant test at the level ofα= 0.05;2） The standardized RMSEs of temperature fields were less than 1 in different seasons in China and the corresponding correlation coefficients passed the significant test at the level ofα= 0.05 except for the southern part of China in summer;3） The standardized RMSEs of relative humidity field,zonal wind and meridional wind were smaller in summer,autumn and winter in China,the correlation coefficient between the observed zonal wind and the simulative zonal wind of the year was good and the correlation coefficient passed the significant test of the level ofα= 0.05 in most parts of China;4） The model significantly simulated the intra-annual variations of each meteorological element in different areas of China and the correlation coefficients between the observed field and the simulated field of every climatical element passed the significant test of the level ofα=0.05 except for the meridional wind in the southwest part of China.

关 键 词：BCC_CSM模式 数值模拟 气候变化 标准化均方根误差 相关系数 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]