英国CRU高分辨率格点资料揭示的近百年来青藏高原气温变化  

An overview of temperature vrariations on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau in the recent hundred years using UK CRU high resolution grid data

作　　者：任余龙[1,2] 石彦军[1] 王劲松[2] 张宇[2] 王式功[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期63-68,共6页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台"气象环境与健康"专项服务建设项目;国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ18B08)

摘　　要：利用英国East Anglia大学CRU高分辨率地面温度格点资料和EOF,REOF及线性趋势等方法,分析了青藏高原地面温度的时空分布特征及近百年来的变化趋势.结果表明:空间一致性是高原气温空间结构的主要特征,除此之外,高原气温在空间分布上还存在东西、南北反相结构.利用方差最大化旋转可将高原气温变化分为高原中部区、西部区、北部区、南部区及东部区.近百年来高原气温处于上升通道,气候倾向率约为0.07℃/10 a,经历了四次冷暖交替的时期:1901-1930年为冷期;1931-1950年为暖期,气温显著升高;1950年开始一直到1980年前后,高原气温总体变化比较平稳;而从1980年至今,高原的气温都处于快速上升的通道.高原气温的变化主要以准60年周期为主,同时还有30年准周期振荡,存在多个突变点.高原各个区域近百年来气温都处于上升状态,青藏高原中部区气候倾向率达0.065℃/10 a,西部区上升趋势最显著,气候倾向率达0.128℃/10 a,北部区为0.108°/10 a,南部区为0.015°/10 a,东部区为0.022℃/10 a,且大部分区域都通过α=0.01的信度检验.各区域有不同的温度变化特征,中部区和北部区相似,而东部区正负交替比较频繁.With the high resolution ground temperature data from the East Anglia Climatic Research Unit University（abbreviation CRU） and by means of EOF,REOF and linear trend analysis methods,Qinghai Tibetan plateau surface temperature with temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and change trends in the recent hundred years were analyzed.The results showed that space consistency was characterized by plateau temperature spatial structure features;in addition,for plateau air temperature distribution in space,there was an north-south reversed structure.With the variance maximizing rotation,the temperature variations could be divided into the central plateau region,western region,northern region,southern region and the eastern region. For nearly a hundred yeaxs of rising temperature,the climate tendency rate was about 0.07℃/10 a,undergoing a four alternating cold and warm period：from the 1901 to 1930 cold period;from 1931 to 1950 warm period, there was an obvious increase in temperature;from 1950 until around 1980,plateau temperature changes had been relatively stable in general;and from 1980 to the present,high temperatures has been on the rise at a rapid channel.Plateau air temperature changes occurred mainly in the quasi 60 year period and,at the same time,there were also 30 years of quasi periodic oscillation and a presence of multiple point mutations.In each area in the recent hundred years the temperature has been rising：in the central Qinghai-Tibetan plateau the climate tendency rate was 0.065℃/10 a;the western area increased significantly,with the climate tendency rate of 0.128℃/10 a;the rate for the northern area was 0.108℃/10 a,and 0.015℃/10 a for the southern part;the east part was 0.022℃/10 a.Most of the regions passed theα= 0.01 reliabihty test.Of the various regions with different temperature characteristics,the central and northern areas showed similar trends,while the eastern area had more frequent positive and negative alternations.

关 键 词：青藏高原气温 EOF 小波 气候倾向率 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]