我国结构性财富效应的季度时变特征与货币政策调控框架转型  

The Seasonal Changing Characteristics of Wealth Effect and the Framing Transformation of Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：骆祚炎[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学院 [2]广东商学院国民经济研究中心

出　　处：《学术研究》2013年第1期67-74,159,共8页Academic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(71073030);广东省高等学校高层次人才项目"基于消费视角的广东省居民资产财富效应研究"(Z9991304);国家社科基金"上市公司价值视角下的外资参股效应研究"(11BJY138)的阶段性成果;广东商学院国民经济研究中心资本市场与投融资研究创新团队的支持

摘　　要：随着经济发展水平的提高,资产财富效应对居民消费的影响更加重要。在我国居民1995—2010年的季度资产结构中,住房资产是最主要的组成部分,储蓄资产次之,证券资产和社保资产所占比例很低。状态空间模型的季度分析表明,我国人均总资产的财富效应微弱,住房资产财富效应高于金融资产财富效应,金融资产的财富效应基本为"负"且波动性较大。为提高居民资产的财富效应,货币政策要强化逆周期干预并对资产价格给予更多的关注,尤其要重视房地产价格。为此,货币政策需要强化研究引起资产价格波动的先行指标,并重视经济体系杠杆化程度的变化。The wealth effect plays a more important role in consumption as the development of economy.In the struc ture of household's assets,housing asset is the most important part,followed by saving asset and social security assets and stock.The space-state analysis shows that the general wealth effect is quite weak,and the wealth ef fect of house is bigger than that of financial asset,while the wealth effect of financial asset is ‘negative’ and volatile.In order to improve the wealth effect,monetary policy should pay more attentions to fluctuation of asset prices,especially focused on housing market,and adjust economy based on a countercyclical model.Policy makers should research those indicators resulting in fluctuation of asset price,and pay an attention to the lever age level of economy.

关 键 词：财富效应 货币政策 资产价格 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]