随机增长模型中的资本流动性与政策风险  

Capital mobility and policy risk in a stochastic growth model

作　　者：王雪标[1] 高海燕[1] 王新翠[1] 周生宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第1期61-71,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71273044;71173029);教育部人文社会科学一般研究项目(09YJA790028);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790004)

摘　　要：本文利用具有资本流动的扩展随机动态均衡模型,分别在资本流动、国内利率、国内产出波动、外国利率、外国价格波动的条件下,通过数值分析,探讨了货币财政政策及其所伴随的风险对增长率、产出波动率、通胀率、汇率、货币需求、货币替代的政策效果.研究结果表明,货币财政政策的有效性随着资本流动、国内利率、外国利率、外国价格波动而变化.对于较低的国内利率,资本流动性显著影响货币财政政策对增长率、产出波动、通胀率和汇率的作用效果.对于较高的国内利率,资本流动性不影响货币财政政策对增长率和产出波动的作用效果.低产出波动国家中资本流动对货币财政政策作用效果的影响与高产出波动国家的相同.This paper numerically analyzed the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, and their associated risks, on growth rate, product volatility, inflation rate, exchange rate, monetary demand and monetary substitution under capital mobility, domestic interest rate, product volatility, foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility respectively by using an extended equilibrium in a stochastic dynamic optimal model with capital flows. The research results show that the effective of the monetary policy and fiscal policy change with capital flows, domestic interest rate, foreign interest rate and foreign pricing volatility. Monetary and fiscal policies have significant effects on growth rate, product volatility, inflation rate and exchange rate for lower interest rate, but have no effects on growth rate and product volatility for higher interest rate. The impacts of capital flows on the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a country with lower product volatility are the same as those in a country with higher product volatility.

关 键 词：资本流动 政策风险 随机增长 数值分析 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]