考虑多风电场出力相关性的电力系统随机优化调度  

Stochastic optimal dispatch of power system considering multi-wind power correlation

作　　者：杨洪明[1] 王爽[1,2] 易德鑫[1] 易俊[1] 刘党峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院智能电网运行与控制湖南省重点实验室电力与交通安全监控及节能技术教育部工程研究中心,湖南长沙410004 [2]石狮市电力有限责任公司,福建泉州362700 [3]中原油田供电管理处,河南濮阳457001

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2013年第1期114-120,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071025);湖南省杰出青年科学基金资助项目(10JJ1010);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-08-0676)~~

摘　　要：考虑多风电场出力之间的尾部相关性,借助Gumbel-Copula函数构建多风电场出力的联合概率分布,提出含多风电场的电力系统随机优化调度模型。通过抽样平均近似(SAA)法处理机会约束条件,将随机优化问题转换为可计算的确定性非线性规划问题,并采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法进行求解。通过算例分析联合概率分布、机会约束置信水平和抽样次数对优化调度结果的影响,结果验证了基于Gumbel-Copula联合概率分布的随机优化调度的合理性。With the consideration of the tail-dependent correlation of multiple wind farm power outputs,their joint probability distribution is characterized by Gumbel-Copula function and a stochastic optimal dispatch model of power system with multiple wind farms is proposed.The chance constraint is managed by SAA（Sample Average Approximation） and the stochastic optimization is thus transformed to the computable and deterministic non-linear programming,which is then solved by PSO（Particle Swarm Optimization） algorithm.The influence of joint probability distribution,chance constraint credit level and sample times on the results of optimal dispatch is analyzed by cases,which verifies the rationality of stochastic optimal dispatch based on Gumbel-Copula joint probability distribution.

关 键 词：随机优化调度 多风电场 出力相关性 Gumbel-Copula 机会约束 抽样平均近似 风电 模型 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]