基于Copula理论的风光互补发电系统可靠性评估  

Reliability assessment of wind-PV hybrid generation system based on Copula theory

作　　者：赵继超[1,2] 袁越[1,2] 傅质馨[1,2] 孙纯军[3] 钱康[3] 许文超[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学可再生能源发电技术教育部工程研究中心,江苏南京210098 [3]江苏省电力设计院,江苏南京211102

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2013年第1期124-129,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：江苏省电力设计院科技项目(JZ-2011-24)~~

摘　　要：提出应用Copula理论建立风电场、光伏电站出力联合概率分布模型的方法。该方法不仅考虑了风电场、光伏电站出力的随机性,并且计及两者出力的相关性。根据某风光互补电站的实测出力数据,采用非参数核密度估计法,估计风电场、光伏电站出力的概率分布。选取Kendall秩相关系数作为风电场、光伏电站出力的相关性测度。利用Frank Copula函数,计算风电场、光伏电站出力的联合概率分布。以RBTS标准测试系统作为算例,对风光互补发电系统进行可靠性评估,结果表明:建立的模型能够较好地描述风光互补发电系统出力的概率特性,且考虑相关性的可靠性评估更接近实际情况。A joint probability distribution model based on Copula theory is proposed for the power output of wind-PV hybrid generation system,which considers the probabilistic nature of wind and PV power outputs and their correlation properties as well.The Kernel density estimation method is applied to estimate the probability densities of wind and PV power outputs based on the measured data of a real wind-PV hybrid generation system.The Kendall rank correlation coefficient is selected to measure the correlation between wind and PV powers.The Frank Copula function is used to calculate the joint probability distribution of wind and PV power outputs.Reliability assessment is carried out for the RBTS（Roy Billinton Test System） and results demonstrate that the proposed model can properly describe the probabilistic nature of wind-PV hybrid generation system and the reliability assessment considering their correlation properties is closer to real situation.

关 键 词：COPULA理论 核密度估计 相关性分析 风光互补 风电场 可靠性 评估 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM615