基于小波变换和M-K检验的灰霾长期变化研究  

A Study on Long-term Change of Haze Days Based on Wavelet Transform and M-K Test

作　　者：尹恒[1] 杨占婷[1,2] 任玮颖 李易[1] 王萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省十堰市气象局,十堰442000 [2]湖北省气象科技服务中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2012年第36期9810-9814,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国气象局华中区域气象中心科技发展基金(QY-Z-200801);湖北省气象局拔尖人才基金(B201118)资助

摘　　要：采用线性倾向估计、正交分解、小波分析和突变分析等方法,对近40 a十堰市灰霾变化规律进行了分析。结果表明,十堰灰霾日数12月最多,最少为7—9月,秋冬两季占全年灰霾日总数的70%以上。年灰霾日数总体呈明显的上升趋势,气候倾向率达5.9 d/10 a。尤其是20世纪90年代后,呈急剧上升的趋势。年灰霾日数变化可分为5个阶段,其中20世纪90年代中后期和21世纪初是灰霾的两个急剧上升阶段。全年灰霾平均天数为23.3 d。灰霾日数区域分布为丹江口最多,其次为郧县,最少为房县。灰霾具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,存在8 a的显著年际周期,灰霾突变时期出现在2002年。According to the haze data at 7 weather stations from 1971 to 2010 in Shiyan of Hubei province, the characteristics of haze change were analyzed using the methods of a linear trend analysis, a EOF and a M-K and a wavelet analysis, The results showed that in Shiyan haze days was maximum in December and minimum in July to September, the haze days in autumn and winter accounted for more than 70 percent of annual total haze days. In general, the number of annual haze days represent the obvious increasing trend, especially increasing rapidly after the 1990s,the haze days is Increased with a tendency of 5.9 days per 10 years. The change of annual haze days could be divided into five stages, among which haze days from middle to late 1990＇ s and beginning of the 21 centu- ry were increasing rapidly. However the number of the haze days in Shiyan is still more and the annual average is 23.3d. From regional distribution ,haze days were most in Danjiangkou, and next calne Yunxian ,while Fangxian had fewest haze days. In the recent 40 years, the haze show remarkable interannual and interdecadal variability. There is remarkable haze period of 8 years. The most concentrated period of haze mutations was in 2002.

关 键 词：灰霾 EOF 小波 M-K检验 时空变化 

分 类 号：P427.122[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]