基于HASM-SSOR模型的近60年来中国气温与降水变化趋势模拟  

HASM-SSOR Based Simulation and Analysis on the Average Temperature and Precipitation in China during the Last 60 Years

作　　者：赵娜[1] 岳天祥[1] 范泽孟[1] 王晨亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2013年第1期86-90,F0003,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950904);国家杰出青年科学基金(40825003);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41023010)

摘　　要：为了改善HASM模型计算速度慢及存储量大等问题,提出了一种快速有效算法(HASM-SSOR),并以高斯合成曲面为例验证了该方法的有效性。利用全国752站1951—2010年的气象观测资料,对近60年的平均气温、降水分别采用多元回归与HASM-SSOR相结合的方法及多项式回归与HASM-SSOR相结合的方法进行模拟与分析;近60年平均气温、降水拟合的复相关系数分别为0.9923、0.9987;并对1951-2010年各年代际的平均气温、降水的变化趋势进行拟合与分析,发现各年代际气温变化并不一致,全国平均气温呈上升趋势,平均上升率为0.35℃/10a,全国降水平均变化率为9.4mm/10a,无明显的变化趋势。A fast effective method （HASM-SSOR） ,which is easily realized in parallel environment,is first developed to solve the low computational speed and large data storage of HASM. In addition, the meteorological data from 752 meteorological stations in China during 1951--2010 are chosen to simulate the average temperature and average precipitation using multiple linear re- gression equation and polynomial regression equation combined with HASM-SSOR methods. That is, the residual is interpolated using HASM-SSOR method based on the assumption of data stationary and the error introduced by non-stationary is overcome. The multiple correlation coefficients are 0. 9923 for temperature and 0. 9987 for precipitation. Last, trends of inter-decadal aver- age temperature and precipitation in China from 1951 to 2010 are analyzed and the performance of HASM in climate research is verified. Results show that average temperature of China has increased and the change ratio is 0. 35C/10 a. No obvious trend is identified for average precipitation over China. The change ratio for precipitation is 9.4 mm/10 a.

关 键 词：HASM 多元回归 多项式回归 平均气温 平均降水 中国 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]