基于实物期权理论的光伏发电投资决策模型  

The Photovoltaic Power Generation Investment Decision-making Model Based on Real Options Theory

作　　者：刘君[1,2] 韩士博[2] 曾华荣 陈仕军 王西伟[2] 曾鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州电力试验研究院研究生工作站,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州大学电气工程学院,贵州贵阳550003

出　　处：《节能技术》2013年第1期75-78,共4页Energy Conservation Technology

基　　金：贵州省教育厅自然科学基金重点项目(2008003);贵州大学研究生创新基金(2012012)

摘　　要：在新的电力市场环境下,光伏发电项目投资面临更多的投资风险。为了有效保证电力供应和二氧化碳排放的降低,需要政府有关部门制定合适的政策引导投资者向清洁能源发电项目投资。即无论是政策制定者还是投资者都迫切需要一个客观的决策框架来指导不确定性环境下的发电项目投资。针对光伏发电项目特点,并综合当前在该领域的研究成果,提出了基于实物期权理论的光伏发电投资决策模型,丰富并发展了实物期权理论在电力投资决策中的应用,有一定的理论和实际指导意义。In the new electricity market environment, PV investment faces more risks. In order to guaran- tee the supply of electricity effectively and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, some appropriate policies es- tablished by the government are needed to guide investors to the clean energy generation projects. It means the policy makers and investors both have an urgent need for an objective decision - making frame- work to guide investment in power generation projects in the uncertain environment. Considering the char-acteristics of PV project and current researches, we put forward the investment decision -making model based on real option theory, which enriches and develops the applications of real options theory about in-vestment decisions in the electricity. The model is meaningful both in the thcory and practice to some ex- tant.

关 键 词：光伏发电 投资决策 实物期权 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]