论主权债务危机形成的门槛条件、类型与治理机制构建——文献、模型及实证检验  

The Threshold Condition,Types and Governance Mechanism of Sovereign-Debt Crisis——Literatures,Models and Empirical Test

作　　者：徐梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际经济学院,北京100037

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2013年第1期3-14,共12页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"后金融危机时期我国参与国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化问题研究"(11AJL004)

摘　　要：主权债务危机的形成需要一定的门槛条件,表现出不同类型,需要构建相应的治理机制并选择适当的治理模式。如果一国经济增长速度放缓,失业率居高不下,经常性项目长期处于逆差状态,这些条件达到一定的门槛值时,主权债务危机便可能发生。当中央政府债务规模急剧扩大、储备资产规模日益缩小时,中央政府追求自身利益最大化的最优政策选择便是主权债务违约,主权债务危机就会出现。在构建主权债务危机国际治理机制过程中应坚持灵活性与差异性原则。The formation of sovereign debt crisis has certain threshold conditions with different types, so corresponding governance mechanism should be constructed and proper governance mod- el should be chosen. Sovereign - debt crisis may happen if the economic growth of a country slows down, the unemployment rate keeps at a high level, and the current account is long in a state of deficit, especially when the threshold value of the conditions reaches a certain degree. When the debt scale of central bank expands rapidly while the reserve asset scale continues to shrink, the optimal political choice of the central government to pursue its benefit maximization is sovereign debt violation, which leads to sovereign - debt crisis. Principles of flexibility and difference should be applied when constructing the international governance mechanism of sovereign - debt crisis.

关 键 词：主权债务危机 门槛条件 动态模型 治理机制 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]