基于概念模型及配料法的持续性暴雨短期预报技术探究  

Research on the Short-Term Forecasting Technique of Persistent Rainstorm with Conceptual Model and Ingredients-Based Method

作　　者：刘国忠[1] 黄开刚[1] 罗建英[2] 农孟松[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西百色市气象局,百色533000 [2]广西气象台,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象》2013年第1期20-27,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2012-043);广西区气象局重点科研项目(桂气科200904和桂科攻0993002-1)共同资助

摘　　要：通过统计学、天气气候分析等方法,利用2000—2009年10年常规观测资料结合ECMWF 2.5°×2.5°初始场客观分析资料,对桂西北主汛期(5 8月)持续性暴雨进行分析得出:桂西北持续性暴雨的出现有明显的时间窗,主要发生在6-7月,重点在6月上旬;引起持续性暴雨的主要天气系统有高空槽、切变线、锋面、低空急流、副热带高压及台风减弱低压等;根据天气系统的相互配置可将持续性暴雨分为高空槽配合切变线或锋面型、副热带高压边缘配合深槽型、台风减弱低压型、中低空切变配合型4种天气模型,其中以台风减弱低压型的降雨强度最强、影响范围最广。基于概念模型和配料法,建立了各天气型的概念模型和特定阈值的决策树。基于ECMWF和T639产品,建立了预报准确率(TS)达10%以上的桂西北持续性暴雨过程24小时短期客观预报工具。Using ten years of observation data and EC 2.5°×2.5°objective analysis data from 2000 to 2009, per- sistent rainstorms in northwest Guangxi in main flood period （May to August） were analyzed with the methods of statistics and synoptic climatology. The results showed that persistent rainstorms obviously occurred in the time window which mainly appeared in June and July, especially in early June. The major weather systems causing per- sistent rainstorm are upper trough, shear line, frontal surface, low-level jet, subtropical high and tropical cyclone, etc. According to the weather system configuration, persistent rainstorms can be divided into four weather pat- terns, including the type of upper trough cooperating with shear line or frontal surface, the type of deep trough on the edge of subtropical high, the type of tropical cyclone, the type of middle-level shear line cooperating with low- level shear line. It was the type of tropical cyclone that rainfall intensity was the strongest as well as influence range was the most extensive. Based on the conceptual model analysis and ingredients method, four kinds of weather conceptual models and the specific threshold value o{ decision trees were established. As well as, a 24 h short-term forecasting tool with forecast accuracy （TS） of persistent rainstorm in northwest Guangxi more than 10% was established by using the products of EC and T639 model.

关 键 词：桂西北 持续性暴雨 概念模型 配料法 预报技术 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]