中国园艺产品出口波动的实证分析:1992-2010  

Empirical Analysis on Exportation Fluctuation of Chinese Horticultural Products:1992-2010

作　　者：刘庆博[1] 刘俊昌[1] 宋莎[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2013年第1期5-11,共7页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：质检公益性行业科研专项"森林食品质量安全管理和标准研究"(201010269)的支持

摘　　要：文章在分析中国园艺产品出口的规模、市场分布和产品结构变化的基础上,运用修正的CMS模型从需求、结构和竞争力三个方面,分四个时期考察了1992-2010年间中国园艺产品出口波动及各影响因素的强度和变化趋势。本文发现,市场的需求规模和竞争力是影响中国园艺产品出口波动的主要原因;中国加入WTO后,市场准入程度的不断提高是中国园艺产品出口市场结构效应和竞争力效应逐步提升的原因。此外,两次金融危机对需求规模效应都有显著的影响。Based on the exportation scale, distribution of export market and changes of export products structure of Chinese horticultural products; using modified constant market share （CMS） model, this paper analyzes the exportation fluctuation of Chinese horticultural products and studies the strength and trend of influence factors from demand, structure, competitiveness and four periods during 1992 to 2010. It finds that the demand of world market and competitiveness are the mainly causes for exportation fluctuation of Chinese horticultural products. The improving market structure effect and competitive effect of Chinese horticultural products are mainly because of the improved market access after Chinas WTO Entry. In addition, two times financial crisis have a significant impact on the effect of demand scale.

关 键 词：园艺产品 出口波动 修正的CMS模型 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62F224