中国2008--2010年结核病空间分布特征分析  

Analysis on the spatial clustering of tuberculosis based on provincial level in China from 2008 to 2010

作　　者：赵飞[1] 王黎霞[1] 成诗明[1] 陈明亭[1] 赵雁林[1] 张慧[1] 成君[1] 胡冬梅[1] 郭晖[1] 李萌[1] 何广学[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2013年第2期168-172,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：基金项目：中国全球基金结核病项目实施性研究（TalE-007）;中国疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金（2012A108）

摘　　要：目的探测2008--2010年中国结核病空间聚集区域及其变化。方法采用全局空间自相关和SaTScan软件对2008--2010年以省级为单位的结核病总登记率和新涂阳肺结核登记率进行空间聚集性分析。结果2008--2010年结核病总登记率和新涂阳肺结核登记率均存在空间高值聚集（P〈0．01）；结核病总登记率聚集区域范围由19个省份减至14个，主要聚集区域位于中国南、西和东北部地区；新涂阳肺结核登记率空间高值聚集区域覆盖14个省份，分布在中国南部和东北部。结论中国南部和东北部地区既是结核病高负担聚集地区，又是传播风险聚集地区；西部地区是结核病高负担聚集地区，而非高风险传播聚集地区。Objective To study the tuberculosis clustering areas and the changing trend, from 2008 to 2010, so as to provider the reference for tuberculosis control. Methods Global spatial autocorrelation and SaTScan methods were used to detect and analyse the spatial clustering of total tuberculosis notification rate and the new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis notification rate, at the provincial level from 2008 to 2010. Results The spatial clustering （SC） phenomenon was significant on total notification rate and new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis notification rate from 2008 to 2010 （P〈0.01）. The coverages of clustering areas on total notification rate showed a reduction from 19 provinces to 14 provinces, distributed in the south, west and north-east areas of China. The coverages of clustering areas on new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis notification rate concentrated in 14 provinces which covedre the south and north-east of China. Conclusion The disease burden and the risk of transmission in the clustering areas of tuberculosis both located in the south and the north-east of China. The disease burden of tuberculosis was high in the west of China, but not the areas with high risk of transmission.

关 键 词：结核病 空间聚集 全局空间自相关 

分 类 号：R52[医药卫生—内科学]