中国商业银行盈利能力的影响因素——基于1997～2010年数据的实证分析  

Factors to Affect the Profitability of Chinese Commercial Banks——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data during 1997～2010

作　　者：陆静[1] 阿拉腾苏道[2] 尹宇明[3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院金融系 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院 [3]电子科技大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2013年第1期3-14,共12页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(09BJL024;08BJY154);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(11YJC790248);重庆市自然科学基金(2009BB2042)资助

摘　　要：本文将影响银行盈利的因素分为内部环境和外部环境两个方面,采用面板广义矩估计方法对1997～2010年中国144家商业银行进行了实证分析。研究发现,商业银行的盈利能力除了与银行特征有关,还与金融市场结构和宏观经济变量相关。其中,不良贷款率、坏账存量和破产概率等风险指标与利润率显著负相关,银行存款份额和经营效率与利润显著正相关;GDP增长率、通货膨胀率和存贷款基准利差等外部宏观环境也会显著影响商业银行盈利水平。中国银行业应在发展利息收入的同时,进一步开拓非利息收入业务和提高经营水平,构建多渠道盈利的模式。In this paper, the factors to affect the profitability of banks are divided into two types： internal environment and external environment. The paper uses the paneld data during 1997-2010 and the GMM method to analyse 144 Chinese commercial banks empirically. It is found that the profitability of banks is not only related to the bank characteristics, but also the structure of financial market and the macroeconomic variables; the percentage of non-performing loan, the amount of bad debt, the bankruptcy probability and other risk indicators are related to the ratio of profit significantly and negatively; the share of bank deposits and operatiinal efficiency are related to profit significantly and positively; the factors of external macro-environment, such as GDP growth, inflation and the benchmark rate of deposit and loan, etc., also impact the profit of commercial bank. Chinese banking sector should explore non-interest income business, improve operation and build a multi＇channel profit pattern while it develops interest income.

关 键 词：商业银行 盈利能力 利息收入 非利息收入 盈利模式 

分 类 号：F830.42[经济管理—金融学] F224