美国碳关税对我国经济的影响程度到底如何?——基于DCGE模型的分析  

Impacts of USA's carbon motivated border tax adjustments on China's economy:An analysis based on dynamic computable general equilibrium model

作　　者：鲍勤[1] 汤铃[2] 汪寿阳[1] 乔晗[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [3]中国矿业大学管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第2期345-353,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(710301069;71203214;91224001);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2010GQ001)

摘　　要：通过构建一个包括美国等4个国外账户和37个生产部门的动态可计算一般均衡模型,以2007年为基年,模拟研究了从2020年起美国对我国出口产品征收碳关税,到2030年止对我国经济的动态影响.基于7种碳关税税率情景的模拟结果表明:美国征收碳关税将直接缩减我国企业对美出口利润,减少我国对美出口,进而间接地对我国总体经济造成负面影响;美国碳关税政策对于我国不同行业出口的影响程度不同,对碳排放密度较高以及对美出口占总产出比重较大的行业如电力生产蒸汽热水生产供应业、水泥石灰和石膏制造业等有着较强的负面影响.A dynamic computable general equilibrium model that contains 37 production sectors and 4 foreign accounts was developed in this paper to study the impacts of USA＇s border carbon adjustments on China＇s economy. Based on the data of year 2007, 7 scenarios with different tax rates were designed from the year 2020 up to the year 2030. The simulation results show that the USA＇s border carbon adjustments will cut down Chinese enterprises＇ profits of export to USA, decrease China＇s export to USA, and indirectly have negative impacts on the whole economy. The USA＇s border carbon adjustments will have different impacts on different industries in China, amongst of which the industry of electric power and heat power generation and industry of cement, lime and gypsum may suffer most from the USA＇s carbon motivated border tax adjustments policy.

关 键 词：碳关税 动态可计算一般均衡模型 碳排放 进出口 能源消耗 

分 类 号：F22[经济管理—国民经济]