基于模糊理论的鱼雷Bayes可靠性评价方法  

A Bayesian Reliability Assessment Method for Torpedo Based on Fuzzy Theory

作　　者：孟凡亮[1] 周徐昌[1] 刘天华[1] 刘洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学兵器工程系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《鱼雷技术》2013年第1期6-9,共4页Torpedo Technology

摘　　要：在鱼雷可靠性评定中,传统的方法是基于布尔系统理论,较少考虑到"合格"和"不合格"之间的过度状态。为了更客观真实的评价鱼雷可靠性水平,在模糊数学的基本理论基础上,提出了新的合格度计算方法,建立了一种由模糊数表示试验结果的模型,进而提出了用Bayes方法对可靠性水平进行评定的方法,得出了一个表示鱼雷可靠性水平的模糊区间。这种方法不仅更符合实际情况,而且具有Bayes方法节省试验样本的优点,算例结果表明了该方法的可行性。Conventional Boolean algebra-based reliability assessment methods for a torpedo consider little transition state between ‘qualified＇ and ‘unqualified＇. In order to assess the reliability level of a torpedo more objectively and ex- actly, a novel reliability assessment model is put forward on the basis of fuzzy mathematics, in which test results are represented by fuzzy numbers. Then the Bayes method is adopted in assessment of reliability level to obtain a fuzzy zone indicating reliability level of a torpedo. This method is more practical and shows a saving in test samples. Feasibility of the present method is verified by an example.

关 键 词：鱼雷 可靠性评定 模糊理论 BAYES方法 

分 类 号：TJ630[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]