铁路风险控制经济可行性评价计算方法研究  

Study on Economic Feasibility Evaluation for Railway′s Risk Control

作　　者：石京[1] 李希林[1] 谭金华[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《铁道工程学报》2013年第1期120-124,共5页Journal of Railway Engineering Society

摘　　要：研究目的:我国铁路受自然灾害的影响严重,为防范自然灾害,减小铁路风险,需要建设防灾工程,并在建设决策中进行经济可行性评价。研究结论:本文采用概率论的方法,将风灾等具有季节性的铁路灾害发生的概率随时间变化的函数离散化,从而可以在经济可行性评价中考虑灾害发生的季节性,针对不同的具有季节性的灾害防灾工程进行评价。结果表明,考虑灾害季节性的计算方法所得到的净现值和效益成本比更符合实际。因此,考虑某些灾害发生具有季节性,比假定灾害在一年中每个月发生的概率均等所得到的防灾工程经济可行性评价计算结果更科学。Research purposes： The railways in China are affected by natural disasters seriously. Thus it is necessary to do the disaster prevention engineering in order to prevent the natural disasters and reduce the risk of railway. It is also necessary to evaluate the economic feasibility for the decision - making of the disaster prevention engineering. Research conclusions ： The discretization of probability function varying with time and relating to seasonal disaster to the railway is conducted with the probability theory to consider the seasonality in the economic evaluation of the various seasonal disaster prevention engineerings. The result shows that the ratio of the net present value and benefit - cost is more realistic on consideration of the seasonal factor. Therefore, considering the seasonal factor is better than assuming the uniform occurrence of disasters, and its calculation result for evaluating the economic feasibility of railwayg seasonal disaster prevention engineering is more scientific.

关 键 词：铁路 风险 防灾工程 经济 评价 

分 类 号：U216.41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]