全球失衡、金融危机及其前景分析——基于经济长波视角  

Based on the Economic Long Wave Perspective to Study Global Imbalances,Financial Crisis and Its Prospects

作　　者：张伯伟[1] 任希丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《南开学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第1期19-28,共10页Nankai Journal:Philosophy,Literature and Social Science Edition

摘　　要：在世界经济长波运行过程中,存在技术先进国与后进国之间的失衡现象,且会随着周期的运行发生调整和改变。通过实证分析,我们发现第五个长波发展至今,经济处于繁荣期的特征还没有得到充分体现,更没出现由繁荣转入衰退的特征,发达国家信息技术对产出的推动作用一直呈现上升趋势,由其推动的这个长波的繁荣阶段还没有结束。当前的全球失衡状态,根本原因在于新一轮周期运行的基础技术———信息技术在其他因素的影响下,没能将其基本范式顺畅地扩散到产业中,使得上一轮长周期基础技术下产生的国际分工格局和贸易格局未得到调整,从而导致了全球失衡的长期存在和危机爆发的风险。In the world economic long wave running, there is an imbalance between the technologically advanced countries and the backward ones, which can be changed and adjusted with the running of the business cycle. Through empirical analyses, we found that since the world entering into the fifth long wave, economic indicators havent shown the features which should have been reflected in the prosperous phase, not even the features of prosperity slumping into recession, while information technology＇s pushing function in advanced countries is still on up -trend and the prosperous phase has not ended by now. The fundamental cause of global imbalances is that the basic paradigm of the information technology which is the general purpose technology of the new long wave hasnt smoothly spread to the industries. This hasn＇t caused the readjustment of the international division of labor and trade patterns which is still based on the previous long wave general purpose technolo- gy, which makes the long - term existence of global imbalances and the risk of crisis highly possible.

关 键 词：全球失衡 经济危机 长波 信息技术 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831.59[经济管理—世界经济] F224