北方季风边缘区洞穴石笋δ^18O序列预测初步研究  

Preliminary study on the stalagmite δ^(18)O record prediction of the monsoon boundary zone in the northern China

作　　者：杜雅娟[1] 冯添[2] 康志海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075 [2]西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院,西安710061

出　　处：《科学通报》2013年第3期254-259,共6页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB833405);国家自然科学基金(41023006)资助

摘　　要：基于时域组合模型建立了中国北方季风边缘区万象洞及黄爷洞石笋δ18O时间序列的动态模型,并对未来20年的降水变化趋势进行了预测.研究结果表明,时域组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的周期信息,用其拟合实测数据精度较高;用其预测时间序列的变化情况,和现代气象观测记录相吻合,具有一定的可信度.同时通过中国北方季风边缘区树轮的预测结果对比显示,该地区在2012~2013年前后降水最少,随后20年里将呈现先升后降的变化趋势.Based on high-resolution oxygen isotope records of stalagmites collected from Wanxiang and Huangye Caves, a prediction experiment for precipitation over the next 20 years is performed, using the time domain combined model. The study indicates that this model can be used to determine the significant period of the time series and fit the original record well. The prediction accords with modern meteorological observation, and it is thus credible to a certain extent. Compared with tree-ring prediction of the monsoon boundary zone in northern China, the result indicates that precipitation may reach a minimum during 2012-2013, and first increases and later decreases during the subsequent 20 years.

关 键 词：季风边缘区 时域组合模型 石笋δ18O时间 序列预测 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]