天津市甲型肝炎流行趋势与甲型肝炎疫苗接种关系的分析  

Epidemic trend analysis of hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery:pre-and post-hepatitis A vaccination in Tianjin,China

作　　者：丁亚兴[1] 张之伦[1] 朱向军[1] 高志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心,天津300011

出　　处：《中国病毒病杂志》2013年第1期63-65,共3页Chinese Journal of Viral Diseases

摘　　要：目的对比天津市甲型肝炎(甲肝)与细菌性痢疾(菌痢)的流行趋势,评价疫苗接种在甲肝控制中的作用。方法运用SPSS 13.0软件多重曲线拟合的方法,比较甲肝与菌痢两种肠道传染病在实施甲肝疫苗免疫控制策略前后两个阶段流行曲线的回归模型,计算模型预测的效果。结果免疫策略控制前期(1990-1999年)甲肝和菌痢的流行曲线拟合一致,均为三次方曲线模型,回归模型拟合确定系数R2分别为0.96和0.89。免疫策略控制后期(2000-2009年)甲肝流行趋势改变为指数模型,R2=0.95,菌痢流行趋势仍为三次方曲线模型,R2=0.93。结论 2000年开始推行的甲肝疫苗免疫控制策略效果显著。Objective To compare the incidence trends of hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery in Tianjin city of China,and to evaluate the effect of hepatitis A vaccination on the control of this diesease.Methods Curve estimation was used to compare the incidence of two different intestinal infectious diseases with SPSS software,and evaluate the results of the regression model.Results Before the administration of hepatitis A vaccine（1990-1999）,the incidence trends of both hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery were the same as a cubic curve model with R2=0.96 and R2=0.89 for hepatitis A and bacillary dysentery,respectively.With the immunization of hepatitis A vaccine during 2000 to 2009,the epidemic trend of hepatitis A changed to an exponential model with R2=0.95,while bacillary dysentery still kept as the cubic model with R2=0.93.Conclusions Hepatitis A vaccine is effective in the prevention and control of hepatitis A in Tianjin population of China.

关 键 词：肝炎甲型 细菌性痢疾 流行趋势 曲线拟合 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学]