滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险评估研究  

A study on extratropical storm surge disaster risk assessment at Binhai New Area

作　　者：傅赐福[1] 于福江[1,2] 王培涛[1] 刘秋兴[1] 董剑希[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋学报》2013年第1期55-62,共8页

基　　金：我国近海海洋综合调查与评价(908专项)(908-02-03-02);海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200805018)

摘　　要：建立了一套基于非结构三角网、适用于滨海新区的高分辨率风暴潮漫滩数值模式,在陆地区域分辨率达到50～80m,对两次典型的温带风暴潮进行模拟得到满意结果。计算了塘沽站19a平均天文高潮值并根据对历史天气过程的分析,选取制定了4个强度的天气系统,而后模拟得到不同强度下滨海新区的温带风暴潮最大淹没范围。综合考虑风暴潮淹没风险与承灾体脆弱性制作出滨海新区温带风暴潮灾害风险图。结果表明:大部分地区都存在风暴潮灾害风险,沿海地区风险大于内陆,其中天津新港、临港工业区、海河北岸地区、大港地区南部的灾害风险最大。A storm surge inundation numerical simulation model with high resolution based on unstructured triangle grid has been established for Binhai New Area including the resolution of 50-80 meters in land area, the numerical simulation is carried on to two storm surge processes and the calculated results agree well with the observations. 19 year statistical high astronomical tide is assigned and four levels weather system is developed by the analysis of his- torical weather process also. Four ranks of extratropical storm surge biggest inundation extent are simulated at Binhai New Area. Comprehensive consideration of storm surge hazard and vulnerability, the GIS-based storm surge disaster risk spatial distribution map is produced, most parts of Binhai New Area has storm surge disaster risk and the coastal areas risk are bigger than the inland areas, and Tianjin Port, Near port industrial district, north shore Haihe River and the south area of Dagang appeared the biggest risk.

关 键 词：温带风暴潮 ADCirc模式 高分辨率 漫滩 风暴潮灾害风险评估 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]